MIT agrim research from 1972 estimates that the community will collapse in the mid-21st century, encourage criticism and produce debate. It turned out that the study was right on money, and we as a collective indeed right on track for such a future scenario. A new paper review MIT study and find that social collapse is indeed on the table. We can still change, and the future is not final. Even in the worst scenario, humanity will not stop there 2040. But the world can go through more challenging times if predictions come true.
Collapse Study of MIT Commercial Community
Published by the Rome club, research 1972 offers a system dynamics model that identifies “growth limit” (LTG). Factors such as overexploitation will trigger collapse, which MIT says can occur in the 21st century.
MIT researchers saw a lot of criticism at the time, representatives of the report. But a new paper from the Senior KPMG Director now said that the Identified MIT scenario still made sense.
Herrington’s style is the sustainability and analysis of the dynamic system lead in KPMG in the US. He saw the study MIT as part of his Harvard Master’s thesis. This study is not directly bound to one of the big accounting companies in the world. However, this research was published on the KPMG website, but also on the November 2020 edition of the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology.
When growth is no longer possible
“Given the outlook prospect of unattractive, I want to know to see which scenario closest to today’s empirical data,” explained the author on the KPMG website. “After all, the book that displays this world model is the best-selling book in the 70s, and now, we will have a few decades of empirical data that will make meaningful comparisons. But what surprised me, I could not find the latest effort for this. So I decided to do it myself. “
Herrington views data from the 10 main variables to study the prediction of the MIT community collapse. He analyzes populations, fertility levels, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint. The data identifies two possible scenarios for the coming years: ‘Bau2’ (business-like ordinary) and ‘CT’ (comprehensive technology).
The collapse of the community is not the end
The Collapse community sounds like a death sentence for humanity, but it’s not the problem. “Economic and industrial growth will stop, and then decline, which will harm food production and living standards … in terms of time, the Bau2 scenario shows a steep decline to be set around 2040,” he told the motherboard.
The CT scenario will still provide an economic downturn around the same date, but not similar to social collapse.
There is also a scenario called a stable world (SW) that will prevent MIT Grim results. But that is most impossible to be based on the latest empirical data.
Humanity can follow a sustainable path that will prevent the fall of the community. Economic growth will still see a small drop in SW, but it’s not as bad as business – as usual.
The problem is that the community has around 10 years to make decisions that will change the course. A stable world scenario can replace the predictable MIT Societal Collapse. In addition to the research model, time will notify whether the 1972 MIT prediction of the social collapse that will occur will come true.
